WASHINGTON—President Donald Trumps chances to win re-election in 2020 are on the rise as the violent demonstrations around the country are playing in his favor, according to JPMorgan, which also reports the economy is making a “K-shaped” recovery.
“Investors should position for rising odds of Trump re-election,” Marko Kolanovic, head of the global macro quantitative and derivatives strategy team at JPMorgan wrote in a recent report.
The latest polls show that Trump has been narrowing the gap in recent weeks and there are two factors that drive this shift, according to Kolanovic.
The first effect is “the impact of the degree of violence in protests on public opinion and voting patterns.”
JPMorgan analysts conducted a quantitative analysis based on the academic work of Princeton political science professor Omar Wasow who examined county-level voting patterns in the 1960s.
Wasow studied U.S. election results between 1960 and 1972 and found that peaceful pro-Democrat demonstrations helped Democrats while violent pro-Democrat demonstrations helped Republicans. He also concluded that demonstrations directly resulted in the election of Republican Richard Nixon in 1968.
JPMorgan analysts applied Wasows work to the current situation of protests and found that there could be a nearly “5-10 point poll shift from Democrats to Republicans if the perception of protests turns from peaceful to violent.”
However, there is an important difference between the 1960s and current events, as social media plays a significant role in shaping public perception.
“Voters can see for themselves if the protests are peaceful or violent,” Kolanovic wrote. “It is highly likely that social media distribution of videos of looting in Chicago, L.A., and NYC, arson in Minneapolis, Wisconsin, Portland, Seattle, etc. have led to a significant shift in election odds in favor of Republicans.”
Kolanovic noted that social media has amplified the message and hence the impact on public opinion could be bigger this time compared to 1960s. And this has already been manifested by recent reactions such as record purchase of firearms and migration from cities like New York City.
Both presidential candidates have cast blame on the other for promoting violence.
Trump on Sept. 1 visited Kenosha, a city in Wisconsin affected by the riots last week. During his visit, he criticized “far-left politicians” for pushing “the destructive message that our nation and our law enforcement are oppressive or racist.”
He also accused the media of “fueling” the violence across the country.
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden earlier accused Trump of “fanning the flames of hate and division in our society” and “recklessly encouraging violence.”
Since June, Bidens lead over Trump among voters has significantly narrowed, according to CNN and Emerson College polls.
Emerson showed that Trump tightened the presidential race to a two-point margin in August.
And an Epoch Times National Poll conducted by Big Data Poll found that Trump reversed Bidens lead during the three days immediately following the Republican National Convention last week.
“We believe that momentum related to the Wasow effect will continue in favor of Trump, unless Democrats pivot away from their stance regarding demonstrations,” Kolanovic stated.
“This may not be easy, however, given that top Democrats have called for daily demonstrations (e.g. Kamala Harris) and rallied their base around the theme of defunding police.”
There is also a discrepancy between the polls and actual proRead More From Source